A Volkswagen Polo has been stolen and used as a getaway vehicle at the scene of an arson attack.

1. Case scenario
A Volkswagen Polo has been stolen and used as a getaway vehicle at the scene of an arson attack. The suspect, Mr Doyle has been arrested at his home address. He claims he was not involved with the crimes and states that he owns a Volkswagen EOS. Mr Doyle’s clothes were seized and subjected to an examination for fibres.

2. Fibre Examination
The examination of Mr Doyle’s clothing revealed the presence of numerous black pigmented polyester fibres and black pigmented nylon fibres.

3. Assignment Objectives
To complete this Assignment, follow the CAI model to evaluate the evidence recovered in this case. Use the Volkswagen (VW) data in the article provided (reference as shown below) to determine the probabilities of finding significant fibre combinations.
• Jones, J. and Coyle, T. (2010) ‘Automotive flock and its significance in forensic fibre examinations’, Science & Justice, 50 (2), pp. 77-85.

To complete this Assignment, you will need to write a scientific report including the following headers:
• Introduction
• Data Evaluation
• Discussion
• References

In your report you will need to:
• Formulate propositions
• Calculate and interpret likelihood ratios
• Correctly present data, charts and figures
• Relate your findings to the case scenario
• Relate your findings to the evidence type
• Correctly cite and present references according to UoB guidelines

4. Recommended Reading
The following may be of particular use for this Assignment:
• Adam, C. (2016) Forensic Evidence in Court: Evaluation and Scientific Opinion.
• Adam, C. (2010) Essential Mathematics and Statistics for Forensic Science.
• Lucy, D. (2005) Introduction to Statistics for Forensic Scientists.

The following reference may also be of use to you:
• Jackson et al. (2015) Case Assessment and Interpretation of Expert Evidence: Guidance
for Judges, Lawyers, Forensic Scientists and Expert Witnesses
Please remember that you are encouraged to seek further literature sources.

1. Introduction
For this section, you will need to describe the case background and explain what the CAI model consists of, how and why it used by forensic scientists. This will include consideration of the hierarchy of propositions and the importance of evaluating the evidence from both the Prosecution and Defence arguments.

2. Data Evaluation
For this section, you will need to construct propositions for your events of interest (according to the hierarchy of propositions). You will need to draw out the appropriate data from the research article provided and explain why you have selected specific data. From there, you will need to explain how you will use the data to determine the basic probabilities of the events of interest, before calculating the likelihood ratios.

3. Discussion
For this section, you will need to evaluate the likelihood ratios and explain their significance using an appropriate verbal scale. From there, you will need to explain your findings in relation to the case scenario, discussing the value and limitations of the evidence type.

4. References
You should include a reference list at the end of your proposal that contains the full information for each of the citations within your text. This list should be formatted according to the UoB Guide to Referencing web pages which can be found here: https://lrweb.beds.ac.uk/a-guide-to-referencing